Subproject 3: Conceptual implementation and demonstration phase
Subproject 3 treats two different topics:
- The development of a software-reference architecture for user-group-specific weather and power forecasts
- The development and establishment of procedures for the application of ensemble prediction systems in the energy sector
The reference architecture describes both the prototype of a research and development platform as well as the operational production of user-specific forecasts. Interfaces and data models are developed based on energy sector standards. The reference architecture, interfaces, and data models provide the basis for a flexible evaluation and optimization of the quality of the weather forecast models of DWD and for the demonstration phase at the end of the project.
Another focus of this subproject is the development of probabilistic wind power and PV products, based on the work of subproject 2, and the integration of probabilistic information into the decision making process of TSOs. New techniques for the integration of EPS forecasts are developed in close collaboration with the end users in order to integrate user-specific probabilistic forecasts into the decision making process. In addition, the weather parameters that are relevant for power forecasts are statistically optimized using Model Output Statistics (MOS).
Close collaboration is necessary in order to establish an acceptance of the new products among end users. One of this subproject‘s main goals is to communicate the new methods and user requirements regarding e.g., data formats and visualization. An overview of the approach is shown in the graph below.
At the end of the project, a demonstration phase is planned. During this phase, the deterministic and probabilistic weather and power forecasts that are developed and/or optimized during the project are run over a longer time period and tested by the end users. Based on this phase, the capabilities, limitations, and potential of the weather and power forecasts for the energy sector are evaluated and summarized.
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