The German energy system is going through a fundamental change. Based on the energy plans of the German federal government, the share of power production from renewables should increase to 35% by 2020. Increasing the average power production from renewables to 35% means that in the near future, renewable energies will provide Germany’s entire power production at certain times.. By the year 2050, 80% of the total power supply in Germany should be provided by renewables. Power production from renewables is dominated by weather-dependent components such as wind energy and photovoltaics (PV). Operating a power supply system with a large share of weather-dependent power sources in a secure way, requires global as well as regional weather forecasts. The most promising strategy to improve the existing wind power and PV forecasts, is to optimize the underlying weather forecasts and to enhance the collaboration between the meteorology and energy sector. Here the development and establishment of new forecast products in decision making processes, as well as the integration of information provided by the energy sector into the weather forecast models, are of particular importance.
Fraunhofer IWES and Deutscher Wetterdienst address these challenges within the research project EWeLiNE. The overarching goal of the project is to improve the wind and PV power forecasts by combining improved power forecast models and optimized weather forecasts. During the project, the weather forecasts by Deutscher Wetterdienst will be generally optimized towards improved wind power and PV forecasts. For instance, it will be investigated whether the assimilation of new types of data, e.g. power production data, can lead to improved weather forecasts. With regard to the probabilistic forecasts, the focus is on the generation of ensembles and ensemble calibration. One important aspect of the project is to integrate the probabilistic information into decision making processes by developing user-specified products. The product development will take place in a close collaboration with the end users. To define the requirements for existing and future power forecasts, the Transmission System Operators Amprion GmbH, TenneT TSO GmbH and 50 Hertz Transmission GmbH are taking part in the project
Please find more information about the project here:
Subproject 1: Optimization of weather and power forecast models
Subproject 2: Development of probabilistic weather and power forecasts
Subproject 3: Conceptual realization and demonstration phase